June 10 – July 10, 2026 Training Analysis

Summary: Over the past 30 days, you logged 17 runs totaling 14.8 hours and 143.4 km — all at aerobic intensity. This is a solid month of base building with encouraging consistency. Your 10% Test ratio of 1.088 indicates a well-developed aerobic base, and your training load is managed safely (TSB −13, ramp rate 3.6/week). However, HR drift data reveals that many of your "Z2" runs are above your true AeT, and sleep is modest at 6.4 hours — two areas worth addressing for continued development.

Aerobic Development

Your 10% Test ratio is 1.088. This is below the 1.10 threshold and suggests a solid aerobic base — the foundation for all endurance, as emphasized in Training for the Uphill Athlete. This is the strongest metric in your profile right now.

AeT confidence is low, and drift data supports recalibration. In 5 of the 8 workouts where drift was measured, decoupling exceeded 5% — the boundary of your AeT per the Uphill Athlete model:

June 10: 7.7% drift (avg HR 150 bpm)
June 14: 5.1% drift (avg HR 151 bpm)
June 16: 5.9% drift (avg HR 150 bpm)
June 30: 9.3% drift (avg HR 147 bpm)
July 9: 8.5% drift (avg HR 142 bpm)

Per the book's methodology, drift above 5% means the effort crossed above your AeT. This is happening even at average heart rates below your stated AeT ceiling of 148 bpm, which suggests your true AeT may be lower than 148. A dedicated drift test — warm up 15 minutes, then 60+ minutes at a steady pace on flat terrain in stable conditions — would clarify this. In the meantime, consider targeting an avg HR closer to 140–143 bpm to ensure you're staying truly aerobic.

Encouraging trend in July: Your average HR dropped noticeably in the second half of the period:

June avg HR range: 148–151 bpm
July avg HR range: 141–148 bpm

This suggests you're learning to run at a lower, more sustainable aerobic intensity. Your July 2 run ("Carrera de mañana") at an avg HR of 141 bpm and max of 157 bpm is an excellent model Z2 session — fully below your AeT ceiling with plenty of headroom.

Intensity & Zone Compliance

100% of your recorded volume is in Z1/Z2 (7% Z1, 93% Z2). This aligns perfectly with the Uphill Athlete principle that the vast majority of training — especially during base-building — should be aerobic. There are zero Z3, Z4, or Z5 workouts, which is appropriate given your focus on building capacity. In Training for the Uphill Athlete, this is how you build the aerobic engine that later supports higher-intensity utilization work.

The 93% Z2 figure may be misleading because your configured zones appear to use an AeT higher than what drift data supports. If your true AeT is lower than 148 bpm, a portion of these recorded "Z2" runs are functionally in Z3 — above your aerobic threshold. This doesn't negate the benefits, but it means you're not getting pure aerobic base development from every session. The classic pattern: heart rate drifts up because aerobic capacity isn't yet sufficient to sustain the chosen pace at a purely fat-burning intensity.

No workout grades (A–F) or RPE were recorded. Adding subjective ratings to each session would give you a much richer picture of how you're actually feeling. A string of C or D grades is often the first sign of accumulating fatigue, even when objective metrics like TSB and resting HR look fine.

Training Load

Load management is well-controlled. All metrics sit in healthy ranges:

CTL (Chronic Training Load): 25.1 — building steadily from 17.6 four weeks ago
ATL (Acute Training Load): 38.4
TSB (Training Stress Balance): −13 — squarely in the productive range (−10 to −20). You're training but not overreaching.
Ramp Rate: 3.6 CTL/week — within the safe range of 3–7. No red flags here.

Consistency is your greatest strength. You completed 17 runs in 30 days, averaging roughly 4 per week. Most sessions are 46–53 minutes, with one longer effort at 90 minutes (14.4 km). This consistent, moderate-volume approach — showing up day after day — is exactly what builds durable aerobic capacity.

No recovery week detected in this 30-day block. TSB of −13 doesn't demand one urgently, but proactive recovery is a hallmark of smart training. A lighter week every 3–5 weeks — reducing volume by 30–50% while keeping frequency and easy intensity — gives your body time to consolidate adaptations before the next build.

Recovery & Readiness

Resting HR is stable at 48 bpm with no upward trend over the period. A rising resting HR of >5 bpm over 7 days would be a warning sign for overtraining — you're well clear of that. This is a reliable indicator that your autonomic nervous system is not under excessive stress.

Average sleep is 6.4 hours per night. This is below the 7–9 hours typically recommended for endurance athletes. Sleep is when the physiological adaptations you're working for — mitochondrial biogenesis, capillary development, cardiac remodeling — actually occur. Even adding 30–45 minutes per night could meaningfully accelerate your aerobic development and reduce injury risk.

Overtraining risk score is low (6). No automated warnings were triggered for ramp rate, zone distribution, or recovery indicators. Your conservative, aerobic-first approach is serving you well.

Key Takeaways

Conduct a formal drift test to confirm your AeT. Your current AeT of 148 bpm has low confidence, and drift data from multiple runs suggests it may be 5–10 bpm lower. Knowing your true AeT is the single most impactful thing you can do for your training right now — it's the foundation of every zone and every prescription.
Target a slightly lower average HR in Z2 runs — aim for 140–145 bpm until your AeT is confirmed. The July trend shows you're already moving in this direction, and those sessions (July 2, July 7, July 8) looked excellent.
Prioritize sleep. 6.4 hours is your biggest recovery constraint. Even small improvements here will compound across weeks of aerobic base training.
Record subjective ratings (A–F and RPE) for every workout. Without them, you're missing the most important signal of all: how you feel. This is especially valuable during base-building, where objective metrics change slowly.
Schedule a recovery week soon. After 4 weeks of consistent building, a lighter week — drop volume by 30–50%, keep frequency and easy intensity — will let adaptations consolidate safely.

Analysis

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